You
DON'T need to be a "math genius" to understand
poker odds...
In
fact, you can be TERRIBLE at math (like me) and still
be able to use "odds" to your advantage
at the no-limit Holdem tables.
There
are TWO main things you need to learn right away:
1.
The concept of OUTS
2. The concept of POT SIZE
These
are easy. Let's start with the first.
"Outs"
refers to the number of cards in the deck that will
complete (or "make") your hand.
For
instance... if you have Ace-King and the board reads
Q-J-4, you need a ten to make your straight.
Since
there are four tens in the deck, you have FOUR OUTS.
Or...
let's say you're holding Q-J and the boardreads K-10-5.
That means you have an open-ended straight draw--
either the Ace or the nine will complete your straight.
Since
there are four nines and four Aces in the deck, you
have EIGHT OUTS.
Let's
do one more. Let's say you've got 8-7 of clubs and
the board reads 2c-Ad-Kc-3s. That means there are
two clubs on the board and two in your hand. If one
more club hits on the river, you'll have a flush.
There
are a total of thirteen clubs in the deck (thirteen
of each suit times four suits equals fifty-two cards).
But
that DOESN'T mean you have thirteen outs, because
you're already using four of the clubs.
Instead,
you have NINE OUTS (thirteen minus four). If any of
those nine cards hits on the river, you'll have a
flush.
OK...
so that's how you calculate OUTS. We'll do some more
in-depth examples in a minute, but let's talk about
POT SIZE.
Pot
size is how much money is in the pot. Pretty simple,
right?
There
are three main parts to pot size:
1.
How much money is already in the middle
2. How much is bet in the current round of betting
3. How much WILL be bet in the current round
Let
me explain.
Let's
say four players call the big blind of $4 in a game.
That means there's $16 in the middle.
The
flop comes out. You're on the button, which means
you're LAST to act. Player 1 bets $10 into the pot.
Player 2 calls, and Player 3 folds. Now it's your
turn. What's the current pot size?
The
answer is $36. There's the $16 that was in the middle
first, then $20 more from Players 1 and 2.
The
$16 is the first part, the $20 is the second part,
and there is no third part since you were last to
act.
Let's
take another look. Let's say you were SECOND TO ACT,
instead of on the button.
Four
players call the big blind of $4, which means there's
$16 in the pot. Player 1 bets $10, and now you must
make a decision. What's the pot size?
Well,
it's $16 + $10 + UNKNOWN.
Why
"unknown"?
The
reason is you DON'T KNOW if the two players BEHIND
you are going to call, raise, or fold. So you really
don't KNOW the exact pot size.
This
is a fundamental reason why math doesn't solve all
your problems in poker. You must use your INSTINCTS
to "guess" and "infer".
In
this case, you would try to guess whether or not the
other two players would call or fold (or raise) and
make your decision then. This is also another reason
why POSITIONING in a hand is so important.
One
more thing about pot size before we move on...
A
lot of players don't know whether to count THEIR OWN
MONEY in the actual pot size.
The
answer is you count your own money that's ALREADY
THERE from before. In the example, your big blind
of $4 is already in the pot... so you DO use it to
calculate the pot size.
Once
your money is in the middle, it isn't yours any more.
Period.
But
you would NOT include your $10 in the pot size, because
you haven't put it in yet. You're THINKING about putting
it in.
Make
sense?
Let's
say you called the $10 bet from Player 1 and the other
players all folded. The turn card comes and Player
1 bets $20. What's the pot size?
Well,
it's $16 from pre-flop, $20 after the flop, and now
$20 after the turn.
You
DO count your $10 after the flop because now it IS
already in the middle.
OK...
so what does OUTS and POT SIZE have to do with ODDS?
The
answer is EVERYTHING.
Now
that you know these two basics, you're ready to start
calculating "complicated" poker odds.
To
calculate odds, you need four pieces of information:
1.
Number of outs
2. Number of "unknown" cards in the deck
3. Pot size
4. Current bet amount
We
talked about the outs and pot size. The other two
are very straightforward.
The
number of "unknown" cards in the deck simply
means how many cards you DON'T KNOW. Before the flop,
there are 50 cards you don't know. You only know the
two in your hand.
After
the flop, there are 47 cards you don't know. You know
the two in your hand and the three on the board and
that's it.
After
the turn there are 46 cards you don't know.
Like
I said, this is simple stuff.
And
the CURRENT BET AMOUNT is just... well, the current
bet amount. It's how much you must put in the pot
to "call".
OK,
let's review.
Let's
say you get dealt J-10 offsuit. You call the big blind
of $6 and so does one other player. The small blind
folds. The player in the big blind checks. That means
the POT SIZE is $21 ($6 + $6 + $6 + $3).
The
flop comes out Q-2-9. You've got an open-ended straight
draw. Either a King or an eight will make your straight.
Since there are four Kings and four eights in the
deck, you've got EIGHT OUTS.
There
are 47 unknown CARDS in the deck (52 cards minus the
five that you see).
You're
second to act. The first player bets $12. That means
$12 is the CURRENT BET AMOUNT.
The
POT SIZE is $21 + $12 + UNKNOWN. The unknown is what
the player after you does...
So
there you have it... those are the four pieces of
information you need. The only thing you don't know
for SURE is the pot size in this example.
Sometimes
you'll know the pot size exactly (like when you have
good positioning). Other times you'll just have to
estimate.
OK,
let's do some odds.
THE
WAY TO CALCULATE ODDS IS TO COMPARE THE ODDS OF MAKING
YOUR HAND TO THE ODDS OF THE POT.
Here's
the exact "formula":
(Unknown
Cards - Outs) : Outs
VERSUS
Pot
Size : Current Bet Amount
If
the first comparison is smaller than the second one,
that's good. It means that "pot odds justify
a call" (or raise).
For
instance, if you have 12 outs and there are 47 unknown
cards, that means you have ABOUT a 25% chance of "making"
your hand.
The
odds against you are 35:12, or about 3:1.
Remember...
when you see two numbers like X:X, the first number
is the chance of one thing happening against the chance
of the second thing happening. You'll miss your hand
three times and make it once. That's 1/4 or 25% or
3:1.
Now
let's say the pot size is $50 and the current bet
amount is $10. That means the odds would be $50:$10,
or 5:1.
It's
easiest to look at in the X:X format and not use percentages.
OK,
so here's what you've got for this example:
Outs
= 12
Unknown Cards = 47
Current Bet Amount = 10
Pot Size = 50
There
are 35 cards that WON'T HELP YOU (47 - 12).
So
the odds are 35:12 for the cards.
And
for the pot it's 50:10. You don't add your $10to the
first number. Just use the current pot size.
35:12
is about 3:1. 50:10 equals 5:1.
The
entire point of calculating odds is to make a good
decision. To make a decision of whether or not to
call a $10 bet here, you would compare the 3:1 versus
5:1.
The
odds here are IN YOUR FAVOR.
If
this scenario played out four times, here's how it
would look STATISTICALLY:
-
You lose $10.
- You lose $10.
- You win $50.
- You lose $10.
You
lose three times and win once (3:1). When you add
your losses it equals $30 but your wins are $50, giving
you a $20 profit.
If
the scenario happened eight times you'd win twice
and lose six times. That means you'd lose $60 and
win $100... for a $40 profit.
For
real life poker situations, the key is to calculate
whether or not you can "justify" staying
in the hand.
Let's
say you have A-8 and the flop comes out:
K-10-4
Someone
bets $10 and the pot size is $20. What should you
do?
Well,
you don't have anything but an Ace high. If the Ace
comes on the turn, you'd have top pair. So let's ASSUME
that your top pair would be the winning hand.
That
means there are three cards in the deck that can help
you (the other three Aces). And there are exactly
47 unknown cards in the deck.
So
we have our numbers:
Outs
= 3
Unknown Cards = 47
Current Bet Amount = 10
Pot Size = 20
Using
our formula...
(47
- 3) : 3
VERSUS...
20
: 10
So
the numbers come out 44:3 (about 15:1) versus 2:1.
Should you call?
Of
course not.
You're
only getting 2:1 for your money but your chances of
winning the hand are very slim.
If
the hand played out 16 times you would win ONCE. So
you'd lose $150 (15 X $10) and win $20, for a total
loss of $130.
You're
always striving for good odds on your money and good
odds on your hand.
Good
odds on your hand means the X:X number is as SMALL
AS POSSIBLE... because you want lots of outs. You
don't want there to be only one or two cards in the
deck that can help you. You want fractions like 47:12,
46:10, 46:8, and so on.
Good
odds on your money means the X:X number is BIG. You
want 10:1, 5:1, 12:1, and so on.
OK,
I'm going to give one more example. See if you're
smart enough to figure this out on your own (you may
need to use a scratch piece of paper)...
You're
second to act pre-flop and look down to see Kc-Jc.
You limp-in by calling the $4 big blind.
Three
other players call. The small blind (who put in $2)
folds.
The
player in the big blind decides to RAISE the pot to
$8. You call. Two of the other three players call...
but one folds.
So
now there are four players total in the hand... the
guy in the big blind, you, and the two other callers.
(Still with me here?)
The
flop comes out:
Ac-4s-8c
What
a great flop for you. You've got the nut flush draw.
The
player in the big blind is first to act. He checks.
You check also (which I would NOT recommend doing
here, by the way).
The
next player bets $16. The next one calls. The guy
who made the original pre-flop raise folds.
So
now the action is on to you.
What
is the...
Number
of outs? Number of unknown cards? Current bet amount?
Pot size?
AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY...
Should
you call?
See
if you can figure it out before I give you the answer.
OK,
so the answer is this:
Yes,
you should call.
The
pot size is $70. The current bet amount is $16. The
number of outs is 9. And the number of unknown cards
is 47.
The
pot size was the hardest thing to figure out. Remember...
the small blind folded his $2. Another player folded
their $4. So there was $6 in the middle, plus $32
with the four callers. So $38 before the flop.
Then
there were two players in for $16 after the flop,
which equals $32. $38 + $32 = $70. Luckily, there
weren't any other players left to act after you in
this exact round of betting.
The
number of outs is simple. Thirteen clubs in the deck
minus the four you already see equals nine. And the
number of unknown cards is 52 minus the five you see...
which equals 47.
Plugging
those numbers into our handy "formula" gives
us:
(47-9):9
Versus 70:16
That's
equal to 38:9 versus 70:16
Now
you might be wondering, "How the hell am I supposed
to know what 70 divided by 16 is or 38 divided by
9? It's not like I'll have a calculator handy at the
table!"
True.
But
you don't have to know the EXACT numbers. All you
need to know is if the second one is bigger than the
first. And that's pretty easy.
When
I do it, here's what goes on in my head:
"38
over 9 is about the same as 36 over 9, which equals
4. That means 38 over 9 is 4 and 2/9ths.
70
over 16 is closest to 64 over 16, which also equals
4. That means 70 over 16 is 4 and 6/16ths.
Now
I just have to compare 2/9 to 6/16. 2/9 is like 2/10,
which equals .2. 6/16 is kind of like 6/18, which
is .33. So the second one is bigger."
And
that means the call IS justified.
Now
let me clarify something...
In
this example the two numbers are VERY close (4.22
versus 4.375). Usually they WON'T be that close. Usually
they'll be something like 3.3 versus 8.2 or 2.5 versus
4.1.
That
means in MOST cases you won't have to do all that
fraction stuff. OR, even if you DO have those fractions,
you won't need to calculate it. You'll probably just
consider it "about even" and make your decision
based on other factors.
All
right... so that's basically how you calculate pot
odds. Of course, there's more.
You
also want to know IMPLIED ODDS. Implied odds aren't
as math-related. Implied odds basically pertain to
hands where you can "bust" or "surprise"
your opponents.
In
the last example, you were on the nut flush draw,
because you had the King of clubs and the Ace of clubs
was on the board.
If
your opponent was ALSO on the flush draw and he had
the QUEEN of clubs, this would be very good for you...
Because
if another club hit on the turn, you and your opponent
would both have flushes. But yours would be higher.
In
this case, your opponent would likely go "all-in"
and you would win a TON of chips.
So
even though the "odds" on your money are
4.375:1, they're actually higher because of the "implied
odds" of your NUT flush draw.
Besides
implied odds, you'll also have to think about the
"unknown" pot size, as we discussed. Many
times you just won't KNOW the exact pot size, and
will be forced to guess.
Also...
you must be careful to consider what your OPPONENTS
are holding...
Let's
say you're holding As-5h and the board reads: 8h-Qh-2h
You
have the flush draw. And the odds of "making"
it are good. But that doesn't mean you want to calculate
the nine other hearts in the deck as your "outs".
Why?
Because
all your opponents need to BEAT you is a heart higher
than a FIVE. And someone most likely has it.
The
point is, when you calculate OUTS, you want to calculate
outs based on making the WINNING HAND.
And
obviously there's no way to know for sure what the
winning hand will be... unless you've got the nuts.
So
as you can see... there are a LOT of different factors
to take into consideration.
Calculating
pot odds is a useful technique for the right situations.
Over the long term, it can become very handy and will
help you make sound, logical decisions at the poker
table.
Of
course, pot odds is only one small aspect of "poker
math". There are dozens of calculations you'll
want to make at the table to quickly, consistently,
and easily dominate online poker.
And
the best way to achieve this is with an advanced odds
calculator. "Holdem Genius" is the world's
most advanced odds calculator... and it's available
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